The week in one page
Metro Analytics’ latest run covers 876 markets and shows a divided landscape: most are in the watch or cool categories, while only 35 are hot. The hot-market count fell by 40 from the previous run. Mortgage rates moved higher through the latest weekly observations, while Redfin’s national measures show sale prices and inventory above year-ago levels but pending sales below them. (Metro Analytics rankings, 2026-09-28; FRED; Redfin Housing Market Tracker, 2026-09-27.)
| Measure | Latest reading |
|---|
| Tracked markets | 876 |
| Hot markets | 35; down 40 |
| Watch markets | 440 |
| Cool markets | 401 |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.28% on 2026-10-01 |
| Redfin national sale price | $393,619; up 1.08% year over year |
| Redfin inventory | 1,575,201; up 2.66% year over year |
| Redfin pending sales | 288,236; down 8.65% year over year |
The category mix helps put the headline rankings in context. Hot markets account for 4% of tracked markets, compared with 50% in watch and 46% in cool. The average estimates are +7.8% for hot markets, +2.1% for watch markets, and -2% for cool markets. These are Metro Analytics composite ranking estimates, not the Redfin sale-price measures. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings.)
Where markets are running hot
The hot-market leaders are spread across several states, with Cedar Park, Texas, at the top of the ranking. The state averages supplied with this run are also positive for every listed state, led by Minnesota and Maryland. Those averages summarize state-level model estimates and should not be confused with the individual market estimates below. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings.)
| Market | Estimate |
|---|
| Cedar Park, TX | +9.2% |
| Flower Mound, TX | +9.0% |
| Bolingbrook, IL | +9.0% |
| Maple Grove, MN | +9.0% |
| O'Fallon, MO | +9.0% |
| Levittown, PA | +8.7% |
| Bowie, MD | +8.6% |
| Olathe, KS | +8.6% |
| State | Average ranking model estimate |
|---|
| MN | +5.0% |
| MD | +4.0% |
| IL | +3.7% |
| NE | +3.6% |
| KS | +3.1% |
| MI | +2.4% |
| WI | +2.4% |
| MO | +2.3% |
Minnesota’s +5.0% average leads the listed state estimates, followed by Maryland at +4.0%. Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Missouri also post positive averages. The individual hot-market list adds a more local view: four of the listed leaders have estimates of +9.0%, while Cedar Park sits above them at +9.2%. The spread is a reminder that the ranking is not uniform even among markets grouped as hot.
Where markets are cooling
Cooling markets are numerous in this run: 401 fall into the cool category, with an average estimate of -2%. Newark, New Jersey, is the laggard at -6.0%. The remaining listed markets are also below zero, including locations in Nevada, California, Florida, Massachusetts, and Arizona. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings.)
| Market | Estimate |
|---|
| Newark, NJ | -6.0% |
| Paradise, NV | -5.8% |
| Hemet, CA | -5.7% |
| Sunrise Manor, NV | -5.5% |
| North Miami, FL | -5.4% |
| Everett, MA | -5.4% |
| Lake Havasu, AZ | -5.3% |
| Miami, FL | -5.3% |
The broad category figures show why it is useful to distinguish cooling from outright weakness in a particular market. The cool group’s average is -2%, while Newark’s estimate reaches -6.0%; these are different points in the distribution. The supplied state-average table lists positive estimates only, so it does not provide a corresponding state-average comparison for the cooling markets. For a market comparison, the listed local estimates are therefore the more direct guide to the named laggards.
Mortgage rates and the macro backdrop
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.28% on 2026-10-01 from 7.03% at the prior observation. The weekly series shows the direction of travel: readings moved from the mid-6% range in August to above 7% in the final two observations. The supplied mortgage data do not include year-ago values, so this update compares current readings with the previous observation rather than a year earlier. (FRED MORTGAGE30US; FRED MORTGAGE15US.)
| Date | 30-year fixed rate |
|---|
| 08-13 | 6.67% |
| 08-20 | 6.65% |
| 08-27 | 6.66% |
| 09-03 | 6.71% |
| 09-10 | 6.76% |
| 09-17 | 6.95% |
| 09-24 | 7.03% |
| 10-01 | 7.28% |
The 15-year fixed rate was 6.60% on 2026-10-01, up from 6.42% at its previous observation. Other indicators in the JSON provide a broader backdrop, with different latest dates: the federal funds rate was 3.75% on 2026-09-01, compared with 3.63% previously and 4.22% a year earlier. CPI inflation was 3.71% on 2026-08-01, against 3.54% previously and 2.94% a year earlier. Unemployment was 4.1% on 2026-08-01, unchanged from its previous reading and below the year-ago 4.3%. (FRED MORTGAGE15US; FRED FEDFUNDS; FRED CPIAUCSL; FRED.)
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Year ago |
|---|
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.60% | 6.42% | Not supplied |
| Federal funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 4.22% |
| CPI inflation | 3.71% | 3.54% | 2.94% |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
Together, these readings show mortgage rates rising while the supplied inflation reading is higher than both its previous and year-ago values. The federal funds rate is above its previous reading but below its year-ago value; unemployment is steady against its previous reading and lower than a year earlier. The figures describe separate indicators with separate observation dates, so they are best read as context rather than as a single synchronized snapshot.
What the Redfin tracker shows
Redfin’s national tracker for the period ending 2026-09-27 pairs modest year-over-year sale-price growth with higher inventory and lower pending sales. Those measures offer a different lens from the Metro Analytics market-ranking estimates: the Redfin figures describe national housing activity and year-over-year change, while the rankings identify estimated local market trends. (Redfin Housing Market Tracker, 2026-09-27.)
| National measure | Reading | Year-over-year change |
|---|
| Sale price | $393,619 | +1.08% |
| Inventory | 1,575,201 | +2.66% |
| Pending sales | 288,236 | -8.65% |
The fastest and slowest metros show how much local sale-price performance can vary around the national result. San Francisco, California, leads the supplied metro list at +13.38% year over year. San Antonio, Texas, is the slowest at -4.88%. (Redfin Housing Market Tracker.)
| Fastest metros | Sale-price change | Slowest metros | Sale-price change |
|---|
| San Francisco, CA metro area | +13.38% | Fort Worth, TX metro area | -2.09% |
| Cleveland, OH metro area | +7.52% | Denver, CO metro area | -2.90% |
| St. Louis, MO metro area | +7.20% | San Jose, CA metro area | -3.34% |
| Chicago, IL metro area | +6.87% | Seattle, WA metro area | -4.53% |
| Milwaukee, WI metro area | +6.67% | San Antonio, TX metro area | -4.88% |
What to watch next
For people comparing markets, the practical message is to compare local estimates with the national measures and financing backdrop rather than relying on one headline. A market can rank hot in Metro Analytics while the broader picture includes a smaller hot-market group, higher mortgage readings, and weaker pending sales year over year. The next update will help show whether the changing rankings and rates persist. (Metro Analytics rankings; FRED; Redfin Housing Market Tracker.)
A useful comparison starts with the places that match your search, then checks how their ranking estimates differ from the state averages and from Redfin’s metro sale-price changes. Keep the mortgage series in view as well: the latest 30-year reading is 7.28%, after 7.03% at the prior observation. The supplied data do not include year-ago mortgage readings, so avoid treating the rate move as a year-over-year comparison. For now, the figures point to a market with wide local variation, rather than one direction applying everywhere.