The week in one page
The latest Metro Analytics run covers 876 tracked markets. The largest group remains in the watch category, while 75 markets are hot and 257 are cool. The hot-market count is unchanged from the prior run, and the rankings span clear leaders and laggards. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings, September 21, 2026; weekly run through September 25, 2026.)
| Trend | Markets | Share | Average estimate |
|---|
| Hot | 75 | 9% | +7.8% |
| Watch | 544 | 62% | +2% |
| Cool | 257 | 29% | -1.8% |
The mix places nearly two-thirds of tracked markets in the watch category, with the remainder split between hot and cool markets. The hot count did not change in this run. Those broad categories describe the overall distribution, but the market-level estimates show how different places can sit at opposite ends of the rankings.
Where markets are running hot
The leading estimates are concentrated among markets in Texas, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Maryland. Flower Mound, Texas, and Maple Grove, Minnesota, share the highest listed estimate, while the state averages show Minnesota at the top of the states reported. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings, averaged by state.)
| Leading market | Estimate |
|---|
| Flower Mound, TX | 10 |
| Maple Grove, MN | 10 |
| Bolingbrook, IL | 9.9 |
| O'Fallon, MO | 9.9 |
| Cedar Park, TX | 9.9 |
| Lakeville, MN | 9.6 |
| Bel Air South, MD | 9.6 |
| Bowie, MD | 9.6 |
| State | Average ranking model estimate |
|---|
| MN | 5.9 |
| MD | 5 |
| IL | 4.6 |
| NE | 4.3 |
| KS | 4.1 |
| MI | 3.3 |
| WI | 3.3 |
| MO | 3.2 |
The state averages provide a broader comparison than the individual market leaders. Minnesota has the highest reported state average, followed by Maryland and Illinois. The figures are averages of the ranking model estimates; they do not mean every market in a listed state has the same trend. The individual leaders illustrate that variation, with markets in Texas and Missouri also appearing among the top estimates.
Where markets are cooling
At the other end of the rankings, Newark, New Jersey, has the lowest listed estimate, followed closely by markets in Nevada and California. Florida appears more than once in the laggard list. The reported state averages are all positive, so they should be read as a separate state-level view rather than as evidence that the listed laggard markets are not cooling. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings.)
| Laggard market | Estimate |
|---|
| Newark, NJ | -5 |
| Paradise, NV | -4.9 |
| Hemet, CA | -4.8 |
| Miami, FL | -4.7 |
| Lauderhill, FL | -4.6 |
| North Miami, FL | -4.5 |
| Sunrise Manor, NV | -4.5 |
| Everett, MA | -4.5 |
Newark is the lowest market in the supplied ranking, at -5. The other listed estimates range from -4.9 to -4.5. The state averages reported for this run range from 5.9 for Minnesota to 3.2 for Missouri, but no negative state averages are included in the data. That distinction matters when comparing a city or market with its state-level average: the two measures summarize different groupings.
Mortgage rates and the macro backdrop
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03% on September 24, rising from 6.95% the previous week. The 15-year rate also moved up week over week. The supplied series shows the 30-year rate increasing across its latest observations, while the other indicators offer a mixed set of comparisons against their previous readings and year-ago values. (FRED.)
| Indicator | Latest date | Latest value | Previous value | Year-ago value |
|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | 2026-09-24 | 7.03% | 6.95% | — |
| 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | 2026-09-24 | 6.42% | 6.26% | — |
| Federal Funds Rate | 2026-08-01 | 3.63% | 3.63% | 4.33% |
| CPI Inflation | 2026-08-01 | 3.71% | 3.54% | 2.94% |
| Unemployment Rate | 2026-08-01 |
The mortgage series traces the 30-year rate from 6.69% on August 6 to 7.03% on September 24. It eased from 6.69% to 6.65% between August 6 and August 20, then rose through the listed observations, including the move from 6.95% on September 17 to 7.03% on September 24. The 15-year fixed rate was 6.42%, compared with 6.26% previously; no year-ago mortgage values were supplied.
The Federal Funds Rate was unchanged at 3.63% from its previous reading and below its year-ago value of 4.33%. CPI Inflation was higher than both its previous value and year-ago value in the supplied series. Unemployment was unchanged from its previous reading at 4.1%, and below its year-ago value of 4.3%. These indicators provide context for the housing figures, but they do not establish a specific cause for the market rankings. (FRED series: MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US, FEDFUNDS, and CPIAUCSL; Unemployment Rate, 2026-08-01.)
What the Redfin tracker shows
Redfin’s national figures for the period ending September 20 show a sale price of $397,119, up 1.85% year over year. Inventory was 1,576,786, up 1.91%, while pending sales were 295,791, down 7.11%. The metro comparisons show a wide spread in sale-price changes, with San Francisco fastest and San Jose slowest among the supplied metros. (Redfin Housing Market Tracker, September 20, 2026.)
| National measure | Latest value | Year-over-year change |
|---|
| Sale price | $397,119 | +1.85% |
| Inventory | 1,576,786 | +1.91% |
| Pending sales | 295,791 | -7.11% |
| Fastest metro by sale-price change | Year-over-year change |
|---|
| San Francisco, CA metro area | +16.21% |
| Milwaukee, WI metro area | +9.34% |
| Philadelphia, PA metro area | +8.77% |
| St. Louis, MO metro area | +6.95% |
| Cleveland, OH metro area | +6.43% |
| Slowest metro by sale-price change | Year-over-year change |
|---|
| Denver, CO metro area | -2.05% |
| San Antonio, TX metro area | -2.57% |
| Fort Worth, TX metro area | -3.28% |
| Seattle, WA metro area | -3.38% |
| San Jose, CA metro area | -4.59% |
The national sale-price and inventory measures were both higher than a year earlier, while pending sales were lower. At the metro level, San Francisco’s 16.21% increase contrasts with San Jose’s 4.59% decline. The fastest and slowest lists are useful for identifying the range in these figures, but they cover only the metros supplied here.
What to watch next
The next comparison should keep the separate measures in view: Metro Analytics trend categories, mortgage rates, and Redfin’s national and metro figures describe different parts of the market. For someone comparing markets, the practical takeaway is to check both the local ranking and the broader state or metro context, then compare those signals with the rate and Redfin data rather than relying on any single figure. (Metro Analytics composite market rankings; FRED; Redfin Housing Market Tracker.)